Math 117: Elementary Statistics – Winter Term, 2009

Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write.

– H.G. Wells (1866 – 1946)

Course Goals

In general, a statistics course teaches you to both descriptively and inferentially explain the variation that occurs in real data. Upon completion of this course, you should know how to (among other things)

· Graphically and numerically describe single variables and relationships between variables in a data set

· Model single variable distributions (via the binomial or normal distributions) and model linear relationships between quantitative variables (via regression)

· Collect data appropriate for your research question and with no (or limited) bias

· Apply the rules and definitions of probability

· Work with the sampling distributions of common statistics

· Use sampling distributions of appropriate statistics to make inference about population values (via significance testing and confidence intervals)

• Understand the general concept of inference, as well as its limitations
• Realize that statistical analysis is important, applicable, interesting, and fun

Contact Information

Professor: Joy Jordan

Office: 410 Briggs Hall

Phone: 832-6894

E-mail: joy.jordan@lawrence.edu

Web page: www.lawrence.edu/fast/jordanj/

Please note the URL for my homepage. On this page is a link to the Math 117 web page, where I will post homework assignments, solutions, handouts, etc. You should visit this website regularly. Also note that I check email fairly regularly throughout the day (typically 3 times), but if you have an emergency or a message that is urgent, then you should definitely call, not email.

Required Textbook

Introduction to the Practice of Statistics, 5^th Edition, Moore and McCabe, 2006, W.H. Freeman and Company

The textbook has a helpful companion website (a link to this site is included on the course web page).

Important Notes: There is a new (6^th) edition of this textbook (put out last spring), but in an effort to keep costs down for students, we are using the 5^th edition of the book (that is, used copies should be easy to find). Also, a copy of the textbook is on 2-hour reserve at the library (under Mr. Clemons – Math 107).

Office Hours

Monday: 3:30 – 4:30, Tuesday: 11:00 – 12:00, Wednesday: 11:30 – 12:30, Thursday: 1:30 – 3:00

If these times do not work with your particular class schedule, I am happy to make individual appointments for other times. (You need not make an appointment during regular office hours—just come on by.) Please ask if you need help, and I will do all I can to assist you, but remember that you need to ask (I can’t read your mind J). That said, I expect you to come to office hours prepared (e.g., having done the reading, knowing the definitions) and not simply looking for easy answers. Besides office hours, anytime my door is open, feel free to come in and ask questions. If my door is closed, I am either out of the office, or I’m working and prefer not to be disturbed.

Homework

I will assign homework problems most days (and post them to the course website). These problems will not be collected, but they will be discussed in class, and they will be integral to your learning of the material. I will provide written solutions to all of the problems (they will be posted on the website), so you can check your work. My homework solutions should be thought of as required reading for the course, since certain (small) topics may be illustrated through homework problems rather than lecture. Please see me with any questions you have on the homework.

Quizzes

An announced quiz will be given on some Wednesdays (see attached course schedule). This will be an in-class quiz (given at the beginning of class) that will take 15 – 20 minutes to finish. The quizzes are not meant to scare you, but rather to regularly gauge your understanding and to serve as a motivational study aid. Quizzes will cover the major topics of the week, and will include questions requiring both problem solving and explanation. There will be no make-up quizzes, except for excused absences.

Computer Lab (Briggs 421)

The weekly computer lab should be thought of as an extension of the lecture, and new material will sometimes be presented in lab. The lab will also be used to investigate and interpret real data (using statistical software). Hopefully it will be an aid to your understanding of the material. A lab syllabus will be given on the first day of lab (1/13 or 1/15, depending on your section).

Exams

There will be two in-class exams during the term and a final exam. The first exam is on Friday, January 30 and the second exam is on Friday, March 6. The final exam is Thursday, March 19 at 8:30 a.m.

Study Tips

Before starting a homework assignment, it’s vitally important you first understand the concepts and definitions. Read the textbook and class notes carefully before starting an assignment (and ask me if you have questions). Also, students often say they understand individual concepts, yet they get easily confused when reading a new problem and deciding which method to apply. In preparation for an exam, you should obviously do many practice problems. To make these problems more like exam problems (where you’re not sure what section they’re from), you can do end-of-chapter problems and/or you can create your own practice test by retyping homework, lecture, and quiz problems into Word, and then randomly arranging the problems. Furthermore, be sure you can carefully explain each step of your answer—this ensures you understand the whole solution process (rather than simply memorizing specific situations).

Grading

Your final grade is based on a weighting of quizzes (10%), computer lab assignments (10%), and exams (first exam – 25%, second exam – 25%, final exam – 30%). The letter grades will be assigned as follows, corresponding to Lawrence’s GPA system (note: the cutoff is the lowest percentage that receives that letter grade):

Cutoff	Grade
93.75	A
90.00	A-
86.25	B+
83.75	B
80.00	B-
76.25	C+
73.75	C
70.00	C-
66.25	D+
63.75	D
60.00	D-

Class Atmosphere and Life Balance

Even though this is a large class, I strongly encourage questions from students, responses to my queries, and lively discussion. You are warmly welcome to participate in class, regardless of whether you have the “right” answer. Please join the conversation.

Because I love statistics so much, I will encourage you to work hard to learn the material. But please realize that your self-worth is not associated with your letter grade on a particular quiz or exam (or even with your final course grade). You are all good people, regardless of your official class performance on tasks. Furthermore, I think as a society in general, and at Lawrence in particular, we are over-scheduled and allow precious little downtime and quiet reflection. I encourage you to think carefully about the intensity and number of courses, activities, and obligations in your life, and to seek balance as much as possible. (I’m happy to talk with you more about this—that is, we can discuss life as well as statistics. And you can read more about my thoughts on my blog: http://joyofstatistics.blogspot.com/)

Tentative Course Schedule (with corresponding textbook reading)

Date	General Material	Reading
M 1/5	Introduction	To Students: What is Statistics?
W 1/7	One variable – graphs, interpretation, numerical summaries, and transformations	Sections 1.1 – 1.2
F 1/9	One-variable summaries	Sections 1.1 – 1.2
M 1/12	Normal distributions	Section 1.3
W 1/14	Quiz and normal distributions	Section 1.3
F 1/16	Scatterplots, correlation, and regression analysis	Section 2.1 – 2.3
M 1/19	No class – Martin Luther King Jr. Day
W 1/21	Quiz, regression analysis, and regression diagnostics	Sections 2.3 – 2.4
F 1/23	Regression diagnostics and explaining association	Sections 2.4 – 2.5
M 1/26	Experimental design	Sections 3.1 – 3.2
W 1/28	Sampling design and review	Section 3.3
F 1/30	Exam 1 (Chapters 1 – 3)	Reread Chapters 1 – 3
M 2/2	Sampling distributions and specific probability rules	Sections 3.4, 4.1 – 4.2
W 2/4	General probability rules and conditional probability	Section 4.5
F 2/6	Conditional probability and Bayes’ rule	Section 4.5
M 2/9	Probability review, and random variables (distribution, mean, variance)	Sections 4.3 – 4.4
W 2/11	Quiz and random variables (distribution, mean, variance)	Sections 4.3 – 4.4
F 2/13	No class – Reading Period	Catch up on reading and homework problems
M 2/16	Means and variances of random variables, and binomial distribution	Sections 4.4, 5.1
W 2/18	Quiz and binomial distribution	Section 5.1
F 2/20	Binomial distribution and normal approximation in the binomial setting	Sections 5.1
M 2/23	Central Limit Theorem and linear combination of normal variables	Section 5.2
W 2/25	Quiz and linear combination of normal variables	Section 5.2
F 2/27	Confidence intervals	Section 6.1
M 3/2	Confidence intervals and significance testing	Sections 6.1 – 6.2
W 3/4	Significance testing and review	Section 6.2
F 3/6	Exam 2 (Chapters 4 – 6)	Reread Chapters 4 – 6
M 3/9	Limitations of inference and one-sample t procedures	Sections 6.3, 7.1
W 3/11	Paired and two-sample t procedures	Sections 7.1 – 7.2
F 3/13	Two-sample t procedures and review	Section 7.2
R 3/19	Exam 3 (Chapters 1 – 7) – 8:30 am	Reread Chapters 1 – 7