By the Central Limit
Theorem (for “large” n), certain statistics have an approximate normal
distribution. Thus, the normal distribution (a distribution we have studied in
detail) can be used to approximate certain probabilities.
Using the normal approximation:
Step 1:
Is it a binomial setting
or not? Consider the variable being measured. Does it only take two values? Or
does it take a range of values? If it takes a range of values, then it is
not the binomial setting. If it only takes two values (and the other
binomial characteristics are present), then it is the binomial setting.
Step 2:
Is it appropriate to use
the normal approximation? That is, will the approximation be good? Note that it
is always physically possible to use the
approximation, but it will not always provide an accurate approximation—this is an important distinction for
a statistician to make.
|
Setting |
Check |
|
Binomial |
np |
|
Not binomial |
Depends on the
original distribution (quick check: n
|
Step
3:
For
what statistic is the probability being calculated? Is it a total or an
average?
|
Binomial Setting |
Not Binomial Setting |
|
Asking about a sample proportion or percentage? Then use
|
Asking about a sample mean or average? Then use
|
|
Asking about a sample count or number? Then use X and standardize with the
appropriate mean and standard error:
|
Asking about a sample total or sum? Then use
|
Step
4:
Draw
the appropriate normal curve picture and standardize to obtain the probability
of interest (or use reverse look-up to determine the value of interest).