Contact:  Rick Peterson, Manager of News Services, 414/832-6590
For Immediate Release						November 4, 1996
 
LU Students Predict Clinton Victory, Republicans Maintain Congressional Control
 
 
APPLETON, WIS -- Bill Clinton will return to the White House for a second term
with a convincing victory in Tuesday's presidential election, while the U.S.
House of Representatives and Senate will remain in control of the Republicans
according to 44 Lawrence University political science students.  

The 1996 election predictions were made solely on the basis of their work and 
assessment in two courses -- "Political Parties and Elections" and
"Introduction to Political Science" or their participation in a special student
seminar, "The Road to the White House" -- and explicitly did not include any
consideration of the student's own personal preferences.  The results were
compiled Sunday evening by Lawrence University Professor of Government Lawrence
Longley.	

The students concluded unanimously that President Clinton will win Tuesday's
contest with his winning electoral vote total ranging between 311 and 455
votes.

The average of all 44 student predictions had Clinton receiving 373 electoral
votes Tuesday, 103 more than the 270 needed to win.  Senator Bob Dole will
receive 165 electoral votes.  None of the students predicted that Reform Party
candidate Ross Perot would carry any states, but two students did project Perot
earning a single electoral vote in either Maine or Nebraska, the only two
states that allow for the division of electoral votes based on the presidential
vote in each congressional district. 

In addition, the students predicted Clinton would win 52% of the total popular
votes, Senator Dole would receive 37% and Perot would get 10%.	

The Lawrence students also analyzed the outcome of the 1996 congressional
elections in terms of the net partisan shift in seats between the Republicans
and Democrats and considered whether either the U.S. House of Representatives
or the U.S. Senate would be likely to have a change in partisan control.

On average, the Lawrence students concluded that the Democrats will gain a net
total of 11 seats in the U.S. House, eight less than the number of Democratic
seat gains necessary to overturn the current Republican majority in the House. 
Nine students predicted election gains would give control of the House back to
the Democrats, while 34 students felt that the House would maintain its current
Republican majority.

In the U.S. Senate, the students forecast a net gain of one Senate seat for the
Democrats, again not enough partisan shift to give the Democratic party
majority control of that chamber.  Fourteen students predicted Democratic
Senate gains sufficient to overturn the Republican Senate majority, while 29
student analyses anticipated a continuation of the Republican Senate majority.

Finally, the students predicted that 90% of all House of Representatives
incumbents on tomorrow's ballot would win re-election, a figure identical to
the House incumbent success figure of 90% in 1994 but lower than comparable
figures in earlier years.  The students also concluded that 88% of Senate
incumbents would prevail this year.  This latter figure is significantly lower
than the comparable figure of 92% incumbent success for U.S. Senators in the
most recent election of 1994.

Previous election predictions by Lawrence students have shown remarkable
accuracy.  In the 1992 presidential election, student analyses predicted that
Bill Clinton would prevail over President Bush and would receive 357 electoral
votes, a mere 13-vote difference from the 370 electoral votes Clinton actually
received that year.  Other 1992 student assessments correctly predicted the re-
election of area Republican congressman Toby Roth and the electoral success of
Democratic  Senate challenger Russ Feingold over Republican U.S. Senator Robert
Kasten.